Bitcoin (BTC) Dips Below Realized Price, Casting Doubts on $72,000 Recovery

Bitcoin (BTC) has recently dipped below its realized price, a significant metric that reflects the average purchase cost of all circulating coins. This decline raises concerns about the cryptocurrency's ability to rebound to the anticipated $72,000 level, as falling below the realized price often signals increasing selling pressure.

Currently priced at $68,608, Bitcoin's continued trading below this critical threshold may indicate a prolonged bearish trend. The pressing question remains: how low can BTC go?

On October 20, Bitcoin fell beneath its realized price, and within just three days, the cryptocurrency's value plummeted from $69,022 to $66,611. Subsequently, on October 28, the realized price dropped below the spot value. The very next day, BTC surged to $72,708, igniting speculation about a potential breach of its all-time high.

However, this optimism was short-lived. According to data from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin's realized price currently stands at $69,352, which is notably higher than its existing market value.

Typically, when the realized price is lower than the market price, it serves as on-chain support, suggesting potential upward movement. However, with the realized price now above the market price, Bitcoin's chances of reclaiming the $72,000 mark in the near term seem limited.

Additionally, another indicator pointing to Bitcoin's struggle for recovery is the large holders' netflow. This metric assesses the activity of addresses holding between 0.1% and 1% of the total circulating supply.

A positive large holders' netflow indicates that crypto whales are accumulating assets, which can lead to price increases. However, data from IntoTheBlock shows that the netflow has turned negative, indicating that whales have sold more coins than they have acquired over the past week.

If this trend continues, it could align with Bitcoin's realized price position, suggesting another potential decline.

Currently, Bitcoin's price reflects a 6% drop from its recent local peak, positioning it precariously close to breaking below an ascending channel on the daily chart. This pattern, characterized by two upward trendlines, indicates resistance at the top and support at the bottom. Bitcoin is currently hovering near the support line at $67,941.

Should BTC fall below this support level, it may slide to $66,575, with a more bearish outlook suggesting a further decline to $62,826.

On the flip side, if Bitcoin's realized price drops below its current market value, it could signal a trend reversal. In such a scenario, BTC may rally towards $72,770, potentially paving the way for a new all-time high.