Bitcoin Reaches $76K After Trump's Election: What Traders Expect from Upcoming Fed Rate Cuts
Bitcoin has soared to a record high of $76,000 following Donald Trump's recent election victory, signaling a strong bullish sentiment in the cryptocurrency market. This surge is largely attributed to traders anticipating a 0.25% cut in Federal Reserve interest rates, which is expected to enhance liquidity and weaken the dollar, thus benefiting risk assets like Bitcoin.
In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin (BTC) has gained 6.6%, according to CoinGecko data, marking a remarkable 30-day increase of over 21% and more than doubling its value over the past year. The bullish momentum has also positively impacted various altcoins, including dog-themed tokens and decentralized exchange tokens, which have seen gains of over 10%. This phenomenon is being referred to as the "Trump trade," reflecting a broader rally in both stock and bond markets.
"Since its inception in 2009, Bitcoin has successfully navigated three election cycles, each time followed by rallies to new highs, without ever returning to pre-election price levels," stated traders from QCP Capital in a recent Telegram broadcast. They noted that the dollar has surged 1.2% to reach July highs of 105, with yields climbing as markets anticipate stronger economic growth and increased fiscal spending.
Looking ahead, traders are keenly focused on the Federal Reserve's upcoming rate decisions, particularly the anticipated rate cut scheduled for Thursday. Historically, lower borrowing costs have fueled bullish sentiment among traders, as cheaper access to capital tends to stimulate growth in riskier sectors.
Analysts predict a 0.25% rate cut this week, a move that has historically benefited Bitcoin by diluting the dollar's value and encouraging investors to seek alternative investments. Current market indicators suggest a 97% probability of a 25 basis point cut, with minimal chances for larger cuts.
"The market is pricing in a 96.8% probability of a 25bps rate cut, according to FedWatch," shared Min Jung, a research analyst at Presto Research, in a note to CoinDesk. However, the rates market is showing signs of uncertainty, as evidenced by the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield climbing to 4.48%, its highest level in four months.
This increase in yields reflects expectations that a Trump presidency could lead to higher deficits and inflation, prompting traders to closely monitor Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference for insights. Notably, November's meeting will not include a Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) update, adding to the uncertainty.
Some traders are hedging their bets in anticipation of Powell's speech, with concerns that a hawkish tone could negatively impact market sentiment. "A hawkish tilt from Thursday's FOMC would be unwelcome for the market, but a commitment to the current dovish path could also trigger a yield tantrum as bond buyers retreat as the year ends," remarked Augustine Fan, head of Insights at SOFA, in a Telegram chat.
Additionally, traders are keeping an eye on potential stimulus measures from China, which could influence Bitcoin prices despite the country's ban on cryptocurrency trading. China's easing policies in response to US tariffs may introduce volatility, particularly affecting the dollar's strength and yield movements.
While some traders are optimistic about future rate cuts under Trump's administration, others remain cautious. "Despite expectations for a decrease in rate cut probabilities due to Trump's proposed policies, the market is still pricing in 1.8 cuts this year and three more cuts next year," QCP noted in its Wednesday report.