Key Buy and Sell Levels for USD/TRY: Insights and Analysis
In the world of global finance, having a clear understanding of key buy and sell levels is crucial for traders. With over 12 years of experience in currency and metals trading, I have overseen numerous platforms dedicated to investment, finance, and forex training. In this article, we will explore the current trading dynamics of the US dollar against the Turkish lira (USD/TRY) and provide actionable insights for traders.
Bullish Entry Points
For those looking to enter a bullish position, consider moving your stop-loss to the entry point as the price moves in your favor. A recommended strategy is to follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips. Additionally, close half of your contracts once you achieve a profit of 70 pips, and hold the remaining contracts until you reach the strong resistance level at 34.30.
Bearish Entry Points
Conversely, if you are considering a bearish position, set your stop-loss order at or above 34.51. Similar to the bullish strategy, move your stop-loss to the entry point as the price moves favorably. Close half of your contracts at a profit of 70 pips and maintain the rest until you reach the support level at 33.99.
Current Market Overview
The USD/TRY pair has shown stability within the same trading range for the past few weeks, fluctuating as the Turkish lira demonstrates resilience. Currently, the pair is trading below its all-time high reached last August, thanks to the Turkish Central Bank's efforts to stabilize the lira.
Recently, analysts at Goldman Sachs revised their expectations regarding Turkey's monetary policy. They now anticipate that the Turkish Central Bank will maintain the current interest rates until early next year, rather than implementing a cut in November as previously expected. This revision follows the release of inflation data, which indicated a higher-than-anticipated inflation rate of 44% at year-end, up from a prior forecast of 40%.
Goldman Sachs attributed this adjustment to the unexpected monthly inflation data, which showed a 2.97% increase across Turkey and 3.9% in Istanbul. The report emphasized that the 3% inflation rate last month was significantly above the threshold needed for the central bank to consider cutting interest rates, potentially delaying such a decision.
Future Implications
The bank cautioned that ongoing weakness in the lira's purchasing power and rising inflationary pressures might compel the government to increase the minimum wage in December, which could further escalate inflation risks in the upcoming year.
As of the start of the weekly trading session, the US dollar has seen a slight increase against the Turkish lira, with the pair trading at levels around 34.25, nearing last week's peak of 34.33 lira. Technically, the pair is positioned within an ascending price channel on the four-hour timeframe, indicating a prevailing upward trend. The price is also above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, reinforcing a strong support level.
Conclusion
For traders, the current price forecast for the USD/TRY suggests a potential rise as the price stabilizes within the ascending channel. Each decline in the dollar price presents a buying opportunity. Stay informed and ready to act on these insights to optimize your trading strategy.