21 December 2024

Slim Odds for Cryptocurrency Mentions in Upcoming Debate, According to Polymarket

Prediction markets show a mere 12% chance for "bitcoin" mentions in the debate, with Trump at 17% and Harris at 13%.

Slim Odds for Cryptocurrency Mentions in Upcoming Debate, According to Polymarket

As the anticipation builds for the upcoming debate, prediction markets are buzzing with activity. On Manifold, a platform known for its "play money" betting, the likelihood of the term "bitcoin" being mentioned during the debate is surprisingly low, sitting at just 12%. This places it near the bottom of the list, trailing behind other unlikely phrases such as "unburdened" at 8% and "coconut" at 6%.

Participants in this market place their bets using mana, a digital currency that is not classified as cryptocurrency. Newcomers to Manifold are welcomed with free mana upon registration, and while they can purchase additional mana, cashing out is not an option. The primary motivation for users to engage in betting on Manifold is to enhance their reputation as skilled forecasters, rather than to profit financially.

In addition to the low odds for "bitcoin," traders are also skeptical about mentions of cryptocurrency by prominent figures in the debate. Current predictions indicate only a 17% chance that Donald Trump will reference "crypto" or "bitcoin," while Kamala Harris has an even lower probability at 13%. As the debate approaches, it remains to be seen whether these predictions will hold true or if the buzz around cryptocurrency will make its way into the conversation.