What to Expect from the RBI's MPC Meeting: Repo Rate Decisions and GDP Growth Projections

As the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) prepares for its upcoming Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, experts are closely watching for indications on whether the central bank will adjust its repo rate. Current expectations suggest that the RBI will likely maintain its GDP growth projections amidst ongoing global uncertainties.

In the last MPC meeting, the RBI had forecasted a real GDP growth rate of 7.2 percent for the fiscal year 2024-25. This projection included quarterly estimates of 7.1 percent for the first quarter (Q1), 7.2 percent for the second quarter (Q2), 7.3 percent for the third quarter (Q3), and 7.2 percent for the fourth quarter (Q4). Furthermore, the outlook for the first quarter of the fiscal year 2025-26 also stands at 7.2 percent, indicating a sustained confidence in India's economic resilience despite external challenges.

The MPC's decisions will be particularly scrutinized in light of various global factors, including geopolitical tensions such as the ongoing Israel-Iran situation. Experts believe that the RBI may opt to maintain its current policy stance, given the manageable dynamics between growth and inflation. This cautious approach reflects the central bank's commitment to fostering economic stability while navigating through uncertain global conditions.