Upcoming Economic Events: US CPI, RBNZ Rate Decisions, and Global Central Bank Meetings
As we look ahead to the upcoming week, several key economic events are set to take place that could significantly impact global markets. Here’s a breakdown of what to expect:
Friday Highlights:
- Bank of Canada (BoC) Business Outlook Survey
- Canadian Jobs Report (September)
- Bank of Korea (BoK) Announcement
- US Producer Price Index (PPI) Final Demand (September)
- University of Michigan Preliminary Consumer Sentiment (October)
- Hong Kong Market Holiday
RBA Minutes Release (Tuesday):
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to release minutes from its last meeting, where a shift away from a hawkish stance was apparent. RBA Governor Bullock emphasized that rates would remain on hold for now, with no explicit consideration for a rate hike, contrasting with discussions in August. Analysts will scrutinize the minutes for insights into the RBA's future direction, especially as inflation remains above the target range of 2-3%. The RBA has indicated that returning inflation to target is a priority, with projections suggesting it may not stabilize until 2026.
RBNZ Announcement (Wednesday):
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is widely expected to cut rates, with most economists predicting a reduction of 50 basis points (bps) to 4.75%. This follows a previous cut in August and reflects a cautious approach to monetary policy amid weakening economic activity. The RBNZ's recent statements suggest a willingness to ease rates further, contingent on economic indicators.
FOMC Minutes (Wednesday):
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is set to release minutes from its recent meeting, where it cut rates by 50 bps, aligning with market expectations. The minutes will provide insight into the committee's outlook on inflation and employment, as Fed Chair Powell has indicated that further rate cuts may be on the horizon, depending on economic performance.
RBI Announcement (Wednesday):
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is anticipated to maintain its repo rate at 6.50%. Recent comments from RBI Governor Das suggest a focus on managing inflation while supporting economic growth. The upcoming meeting will be closely watched for any shifts in the central bank's tone, especially with new members joining the Monetary Policy Committee.
ECB Minutes (Thursday):
The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to release minutes detailing its recent decision to cut rates. The ECB has reiterated its data-dependent approach, with projections for inflation and growth remaining a focal point in its policy discussions.
Norwegian CPI (Thursday):
The Norwegian Consumer Price Index (CPI) is anticipated to show a rise, with predictions suggesting a year-on-year increase to 3.3%. This data will be crucial for the Norges Bank as it assesses the timing of future rate cuts.
US CPI (Thursday):
The consensus for the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a modest increase of 0.1% month-over-month for September. Fed officials have expressed confidence in achieving the 2% inflation target, but upcoming reports will be critical in shaping future monetary policy decisions.
French Budget Proposal (Thursday):
French Prime Minister Barnier is set to present a budget aimed at reducing the deficit-to-GDP ratio in line with EU requirements. This budget will be closely monitored for its implications on fiscal policy and economic growth.
BoK Announcement (Friday):
The Bank of Korea will decide on its interest rates amid a backdrop of sluggish economic activity. Recent data suggests a potential for rate cuts, which will be a key focus for market participants.
Canada Jobs Report (Friday):
The Canadian jobs data will be crucial in the context of BoC monetary policy, with expectations of job growth being a priority for policymakers.
UK August GDP (Friday):
Expectations for the UK’s GDP growth are set at 0.2% month-over-month for August, with implications for the Bank of England's monetary policy stance.
Overall, the upcoming week is packed with significant economic events that could influence market dynamics and central bank policies globally. Investors should stay tuned for data releases and central bank communications that may provide further clarity on the economic outlook.